that is essentially equivalent to what the exit poll proclaimed although as josh jordan points out in national review the exit poll party i.d. doesn't seem to match with the actual results in the exit the poll or the actual results and he estimates that the democratic party i.d. advantage was about five points. the average poll here is showing it at 7 which is more even though everywhere are else in the country the democratic party i.d. advantage has gone away or disappeared. >> sean: can you glean anything from the air early voteing that we are seeing in ohio? you understand this state better than anybody county by county and what do you make of wisconsin, 49-all? michigan, 48-all? pennsylvania? you think those numbers are real? >> think those numbers are within range of being real. in ohio the republicans make the point that the early democrats who are voting tend to be more high propensity voters. people that voted in three of the last four elections and republicans people that are identified as republican on the basis of participation in the party primary, there is no party regist